What Awaits Ecuador’s New President, Daniel Noboa
By Matthew Carpenter-Arévalo
Against all odds, Daniel Noboa is the new President of Ecuador. Even so, he’s not gloating.
Instead of celebrating his victory with massive crowds at a rally in Quito or Guayaquil, Noboa welcomed the news in a sleepy beachside town called Olón, surrounded by friends and family. His celebrations were muted; his speech was low-key.
That’s because Daniel Noboa knows the deck is stacked against him.
Even for a country used to surviving catastrophic events, Ecuador finds itself dazed and confused as it combats a new enemy.
As documented here, well-financed drug traffickers have taken advantage of the country’s weak institutions and easily corrupted the judicial branch to foster a reign of terror.
Fighting for territory, resources, and impunity, the drug gangs were so emboldened as to murder a presidential candidate only days before an election. Since then, seven people linked to the crime have also been murdered. The possibility of Ecuador becoming a failed state is a non-zero possibility.
So how did a 35-year-old banana scion inherit this mess?
As I’ve documented elsewhere, current President Guillermo Lasso invoked a constitutional mechanism to call for new elections to avoid an impeachment trial he was likely to lose.
Choosing not to run again, Lasso’s absence opened the field to mostly known entities, including a former Vice-President, a close runner-up in recent elections, a new Bukele-style imitator, an anti-corruption crusader, and a former President’s surrogate.
In the end, most talking heads assumed name recognition would be enough for a moderate candidate to square off against former President Rafael Correa’s chosen stand-in.
Though he lives in exile, Rafael Correa (2007–2017) continues to enjoy significant support despite being tarnished by massive corruption scandals since he left office.
Even though he’s his party’s greatest asset, he’s also its greatest liability, with the electorate, especially young people, weary and tired of his confrontational and ego-driven style.
What most forgot, though, was that the name Noboa still carried much weight throughout the country.
Daniel Noboa is the grandson of Ecuador’s most well-known industrialist and the son of a five-time presidential candidate. The family’s business empire includes Bonita, one of the world’s foremost banana brands, as well as holdings ranging from agriculture to real estate.
Despite a nasty inheritance battle for his grandfather’s empire, the family appears in public to be united.
Isabel Noboa, Daniel’s aunt, is a well-respected businesswoman and has gushed publicly about her nephew’s political success (her grandson, Leonardo Campana, plays with Leonel Messi in Inter Miami, which is pretty cool).
Daniel’s father, Álvaro could be described as eccentric by some, while his mental stability has been questioned at times by others.
After failing five times to reach the presidency, in recent years Álvaro Noboa has stayed out of the public eye except for a 2017 viral video in which he challenged Hurricane Irma before wading into the sea.
Daniel’s mother, Annabella Azín, is a well-known doctor, philanthropist and humanitarian. She played a more prominent role than her husband during Daniel’s campaign.
Despite starting the presidential campaign as an also-ran, Daniel drew national attention with his composed and intelligent performance during the first-round Presidential debate.
Eschewing the negativity of other candidates and transcending the traditional Correa/Non-Correa divide, Noboa stood out for his pragmatism and lack of baggage.
His campaign was helped by his wife’s status as a social media influencer. For young voters who make up a significant part of the electorate (18–29-year-olds make up 25% of the voting public), Noboa spoke their language in their most familiar media.
What likely made the difference for Noboa was the institutional knowledge of how to run a campaign he inherited from his father.
Effective campaigning in many parts of Ecuador, especially the coastal regions, requires town-to-town and door-to-door strategies. Building the infrastructure to cover vast territories requires resources, contacts, and know-how.
Despite his father’s party no longer existing, Noboa was surrounded by Álvaro Noboa’s former advisors and confidants, who had the experience of running at least five campaigns.
Being a strong candidate in forgotten rural areas will not show up in polls, but the kind of support can propel you ahead of a crowded group once a general election occurs.
Once in the run-off election, Noboa was helped by his opponent, Luisa Gonzalez, who became enveloped in her own problems.
First, with her sponsor, Rafael Correa, tweeting from Belgium with the grace of a sleep-deprived Elon Musk, Gonzalez struggled to assert her independence.
She then turned heads by insisting that Venezuelans have a higher standard than Ecuadorians.
What most likely turned voters off were the suspicions that her party may have had something to do with the murder of Fernando Villavicencio.
Though Rafael Correa tried to paint himself as the real victim of Villavicencio’s murder, most people took his constant public threats directed at Villavicencio for what they were.
Because he was elected to finish the term of outgoing president Guillermo Lasso, Noboa will only govern for about a year before a new electoral cycle will begin.
During that period, Noboa must progress on important fronts, none more important than safety and security.
Complicating Noboa’s progress will be the high turnover in the public sector that happens whenever an administration changes.
Guillermo Lasso was sabotaged by his government’s ability to turn their ideas into public policy by navigating Congress or activating the civil service to action.
Noboa has to rebuild a civil service with numerous problems.
Many individuals who understand how to make government work have left during the current and the Moreno administrations.
At the same time, many Correista loyalists occupy key roles where they either do little as they wait for the second coming of their savior or undermine the efforts of the government in power.
The high command of the police, the judiciary, and the prison system have been overrun by drug gangs, and rooting out their influence will be hard but essential to any potential progress.
The indigenous protests that rocked the Lasso administration can easily be rekindled. The leader of the protests, who declined the opportunity to be a candidate in the most recent elections, has already threatened to take to the streets if his organization’s demands are not met.
Then there’s corruption. Noboa ran on an anti-corruption ticket, but in Ecuador, corruption is not a bug in the system; corruption is the system. Noboa will undoubtedly experience corruption scandals that will likely reach people close to him. In those circumstances, he’ll have to be loyal or swift.
It’s also worth pointing out here that the Ecuadorian government is broke. There’s very little financial room to maneuver.
Finally, few people actually know what Daniel Noboa believes and how ideological or pragmatic he’ll be as a President.
As a running mate, he chose Veronica Abad but quickly had to sideline her after several imprudent comments she made about feminism and pregnant women. It doesn’t bode well for Noboa that he appears to have botched his first important decision.
Then, the day after his victory, Noboa was invited to the Presidential Palace and chose to have at his side Alberto Dahik, a well-known right-wing economist who has had his own corruption scandals from his time in government.
Both his choice for VP and his choice as a key advisor raise questions about what kind of inner circle he’ll form and how they’ll manage a complex country through the lens of ideological simplicity.
In his favor, Daniel Noboa has goodwill and low expectations. He doesn’t conjure the same primitive opposition many of his opponents elicit. At the same time, Guillermo Lasso’s presidency has ended on such a flat note that any type of progress will be appreciated.
Ecuador is in a difficult spot, and the head wins cancel out the tailwinds. Nonetheless, now, under new management, a seed of hope has been planted.
